Preview and odds analysis for Newcastle vs Qarabag at 03:00 on 25/02, Champions League

In Champions League history, no team has ever been eliminated after winning the first leg by a 5-goal margin. Therefore, Newcastle’s aim in this match is nothing less than resting key players while providing an entertaining goal fest for their home fans.

For Qarabag, their Champions League journey this season is effectively over following the nightmare in Baku last week. The Azerbaijani club exposed major defensive weaknesses, conceding 12 goals across their last two European matches.

Additionally, history does not favor Qarabag as they have never beaten an English team before (9 losses, 1 draw). Although their domestic match was postponed to prepare for the trip to England, coach Qurban Qurbanov’s team will likely aim to minimize the damage and seek a consolation goal at St James' Park.

Given the nature of this "formal" match, Newcastle will probably field a reserve lineup but should still dominate a Qarabag side that has lost all hope. Another comprehensive win for the home team is a very likely scenario.

Newcastle vs Qarabag squad news

Newcastle: Malick Thiaw is suspended after accumulating enough yellow cards. The injury list remains lengthy, including Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman, and Tino Livramento. However, with such a huge advantage, coach Eddie Howe is expected to give opportunities to reserves like Ramsdale, Willock, and the young talent Osula.

Qarabag: A major blow to the defense as veteran center-back Bahlul Mustafazada suffered a serious injury in the first leg, sidelining him for about three months. Dani Bolt or Badavi Huseynov will step in as replacements. Forward Elvin Cafarquliyev remains the main attacking hope.

Projected lineups for Newcastle vs Qarabag

Newcastle (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Trippier, Burn, A. Murphy, Hall; Willock, Tonali, Joelinton; J. Murphy, Osula, Barnes.

Qarabag (4-5-1): Kochalski; Silva, Bolt, Huseynov, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Jankovic, Bicalho; Montiel, Duran, Zubir.

Head-to-head record and recent form of Newcastle vs Qarabag

Newcastle’s recent form:

22/02/26: Man City 2-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

19/02/26: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle (Champions League)

15/02/26: Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (FA Cup)

11/02/26: Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle (Premier League)

08/02/26: Newcastle 2-3 Brentford (Premier League)

Qarabag FK’s recent form:

19/02/26: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle (Champions League)

14/02/26: Imisli FK 0-1 Qarabag (Azerbaijan Premier League)

10/02/26: Shamakhi 1-2 Qarabag (Azerbaijan Premier League)

05/02/26: Shamakhi 2-1 Qarabag (Azerbaijan Cup)

01/02/26: Qarabag 1-0 Turan Tovuz (Azerbaijan Premier League)

Head-to-head between Newcastle and Qarabag:

19/02/26: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle (Champions League)

Predicted score: Newcastle 3 - 0 Qarabag (Newcastle wins 9-1 on aggregate)