Champions League: Liverpool vs Napoli! Poor form and a tough rival again, so why am I still hopeful for Liverpool?

Today, let's start by discussing the Champions League match: Liverpool vs Napoli!

The outcome of the first leg surprised everyone in the football community.

Was this unexpected result really a surprise?

In just three minutes, we saw why Napoli succeeded so greatly at that time. Will Liverpool be able to take lessons from it today?

Before the first leg began, fans were still quite optimistic about Liverpool.

Because Napoli is a classic possession-based team, ranking second in Serie A for possession, first in passing attempts, and second in pitch control.

Liverpool, on the other hand, are pioneers of intense pressing. Their famous high press often disrupts possession teams, preventing them from organizing attacks and frequently leading to counterattacks after winning the ball.

But during the match, we saw Napoli make three very targeted adjustments:

First: They committed many players to break Liverpool’s high press.

Liverpool usually sends many players to press the opponent’s defenders, right?

Napoli responded by putting even more players in to help their defenders play out from the back.

For example, in this image, they had three players assisting Rrahmani in passing, creating a 4v3 numerical advantage that Liverpool couldn’t overcome.

Second: They greatly reduced their number of passes to avoid Liverpool’s interceptions.

This season, they average 540.1 passes per game, but against Liverpool, they only made 383 passes, with just 84 in the opponent’s half, only 26% of Liverpool’s passes there.

They actually used long balls to counter Liverpool, playing very directly and decisively.

Liverpool clearly didn’t expect a possession team to play like this and were caught off guard in the first half.

Third: They exploited Arnold’s defensive weakness with full force.

Arnold could almost be called a right winger because he rarely tracks back to defend.

Here is his heatmap from the Napoli match, showing he spent most of his time in the opponent’s half.

So, Napoli specifically targeted his side, which is clearly visible from their heatmap.

How did Napoli get that penalty in the 4th minute?

You can see Arnold was out of position, and immediately a long ball was played to the Georgian playmaker behind him.

Although Gomez tried hard to cover, as a slow substitute center-back, he couldn’t keep up.

This allowed Napoli to easily break into the box, cross, and earn the penalty.

Additionally, Liverpool’s substitute center-back Gomez had major issues.

The second goal was conceded because he lost the ball due to poor control.

The third goal also came from his lack of speed, being outplayed by the Georgian playmaker who then assisted the cross.

Of course, Liverpool’s overall spirit was also lacking.

Klopp didn’t prepare well, and the players’ lackluster attitude contrasted sharply with Napoli’s full commitment.

Today’s Liverpool might be different.

Firstly, Klopp is one of the top coaches. After being so clearly outplayed in the first leg, would he make the same mistake again in the second? That seems unlikely.

This match marks his 400th game as a manager, and surely he doesn’t want to mess it up.

Also, in their last home game, they suffered their first home defeat in a year and a half, losing to Leeds United, a relegation-threatened team on a three-game losing streak. They are like a wounded beast now and could be very dangerous tonight.

Their squad is complete today; Konaté is back, so they don’t have to rely on Gomez, who is a weak point.

Arnold’s problem can be covered by Milner, who performed excellently as right-back against Manchester City.

Napoli, however, are missing their key ball-playing defender Rrahmani today.

Rrahmani is one of Serie A’s best passers from the back. In the last match, while carrying the team’s heaviest passing load, he still maintained a 91% pass success rate.

Keep in mind, he was facing Liverpool, the pioneers of the high press!

His pass accuracy was over 90%, even higher than Napoli’s average in Serie A — truly impressive.

Without him, Napoli’s defense and ability to resist pressing might decline significantly.

Anfield is a place of miracles; the more Liverpool are underestimated, the more likely they are to surprise at home.

Can they satisfy their fans today? What do you think? I’m hoping they secure all three points.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will send written analyses in the evening. If you have any questions, feel free to ask me. Let’s watch the games and understand them together — see you there!

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