La Liga kicks off this weekend! Can Mourinho stop Barcelona's three-peat?

Written by Han Bing At midnight on August 16th Beijing time, La Liga kicks off, and this is the third season in a row that La Liga opens the curtain for the top five leagues. Mourinho's return, major summer signings, and the "halo" of World Cup champions are the key factors for La Liga to challenge the Premier League in the new season. The outside world is certainly full of expectations for such a lively La Liga.

Just four weeks after the World Cup concluded, La Liga becomes the first of the top five leagues to start the new season. Unlike previous years, La Liga is the only league starting this weekend; the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A begin on August 22nd, while the Bundesliga is delayed until August 29th. Last season, La Liga, Ligue 1, and the Premier League all started on August 16th, but La Liga's first match was 105 minutes earlier than Ligue 1's. In the 2024/25 season, the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A all start on August 16th, while La Liga's opening match comes a day earlier.

Barcelona, with eight newly crowned World Cup champions, is also seeking to sign Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, aiming for a third consecutive La Liga title. Mourinho's return, along with the record-breaking transfer fee for Diomande and other new signings, aims to bring championship glory back to the Bernabéu after two consecutive trophyless seasons. Simeone begins his 16th season in charge of Atlético Madrid, having already invested 102 million euros in the market, and is still working to retain the club's top scorer, Álvarez.

The supercomputer simulation by the renowned data company Opta shows that Barcelona has a 45.6% probability of winning the title, Real Madrid 31%, and Atlético Madrid only 8.6%, with Villarreal (3.3%) and Real Betis (2.1%) having only mathematical chances.

With three weeks left until the summer transfer window closes, La Liga has already invested 557 million euros in the market, almost equivalent to the entire investment in the summer window of the 2024/25 season.

To welcome Mourinho's return, Real Madrid has signed six strong reinforcements. In addition to the club-record transfer fee for Diomande (125 million euros), they have also signed newly crowned World Cup champion full-back Cucurella (55 million euros), two top-tier free agents in B. Silva and Konaté, plus young center-forward Espi and Dutch right-back Dumfries. Real Madrid has invested 225 million euros in the market so far. This summer's investment ranks third in club history, behind only the 2009/10 season (259 million euros) and the 2019/20 season (331 million euros), and the club's recruitment is not yet complete. Mourinho hopes to acquire a new defensive midfielder, a winger, and a top-class center-forward to ensure strong depth in every position.

In comparison, Barcelona has invested over 100 million euros, including signing English winger Gordon early, but Laporta's target remains Rodri. Negotiations between Barcelona and Manchester City have been ongoing for some time, with Laporta viewing Rodri as a decisive signing for a third consecutive La Liga title and even a Champions League challenge.

Atlético Madrid has brought in South Korean midfielder Lee Kang-in, Danish defensive midfielder Jureman, and Spanish left-back Grimaldo, strengthening squad depth. However, with Griezmann leaving, Simeone's top priority is to retain the team's top scorer, Álvarez. The Argentine striker is the offensive core of Atlético's challenge to Real Madrid and Barcelona in the new season, with the team's attacking tactics revolving entirely around him. Atlético does not have enough time to complete a "core swap" at the center-forward position before the transfer window closes, which is the main reason their title probability is far lower than that of Real Madrid and Barcelona: the team's core may still leave before the season begins.

The most influential "superstar" of the new La Liga season must be Mourinho. Although the "Special One's" recent declining career trajectory has led some to believe he is past his prime, his return to Real Madrid still captures attention. Compared to 16 years ago, Mourinho once again has a luxurious squad. With the signing of Diomande and the retention of Vinícius, they form the most powerful attacking combination in La Liga.

Mourinho's return, coupled with strong signings, will see Real Madrid mount a formidable challenge to Barcelona in the new season. After all, Barcelona has lost prolific striker Lewandowski, and Ferran Torres is also likely to leave. Currently, they have only brought in two wingers, lacking a powerful center-forward. The extent of their midfield advantage over the two Madrid clubs depends on whether Rodri joins, as well as his form and fitness after joining. Moreover, both full-back positions are very thin. If Rodri and Álvarez cannot join, Barcelona's chances of defending the title will drop significantly.

As for other teams, Villarreal has poached Íñigo Pérez from Rayo Vallecano. The 38-year-old Pérez led the small suburban Madrid team to the Europa Conference League final last season and finished 8th in the league. In the new season, he is expected to become the next phenomenon among Spanish young coaches.

Athletic Bilbao has bid farewell to veteran coach Valverde and welcomed German young coach Terzić. Additionally, the new La Liga season features famous coaches like Pellegrini (Real Betis) and Flores (Alves), while American coach Matarazzo, who led Real Sociedad to a surprise Copa del Rey victory last season, remains in charge.

Furthermore, the fate of Sevilla and Valencia, both of which were in crisis and narrowly avoided relegation last season, is also a point of interest. The failed acquisition led by former club legend Ramos has deepened pessimistic assessments of Sevilla's new season. Valencia continues the ongoing conflict between its Singaporean owner and the fans. For these two former La Liga powerhouses, simply avoiding relegation in the new season would likely be considered a success.